A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
